Estimation of mortality potentially attributable to agricultural burning in Tucumán (Argentina) using the AirQ+ tool

Abstract

In the province of Tucumán, Argentina, agricultural biomass burning practices associated mainly with sugarcane cultivation impact air quality by exposing approximately 1.1 million inhabitants to PM2,5 concentrations exceeding 40 µg/m³ on a monthly average in winter. This season is the time of year when the highest number of fire outbreaks is recorded in the province, accompanied also by a marked increase in industrial activity. Using the WHO AirQ+ tool and based on an annual mean PM2,5 concentration of 19.4 µg/m³ (average of 9 continuous PM2.5 monitoring sites during 2023 in the province of Tucumán), it was estimated that of the 8,463 deaths/ year from non-accidental causes (NAC) that occurred in 2022, 888 (95 % CI: 681-988) fatalities/year could be attributed to high PM2,5 exposure during winter. Without considering the period where the highest number of agricultural burning cases are recorded, the annual mean for PM2.5 was estimated at 10.8 µg/m³. With this other value, AirQ+ calculates that mortality attributable to PM2,5 would drop to 369 (95 % CI: 281-413) fatalities/year. From this preliminary study, it could be considered that, if stricter measures were taken to eradicate open-air agricultural burning practices, 519 fatalities/year would be avoided, approximately 6 % of the deaths that occurred in 2022 in the aforementioned Argentine province.